This week: Round 3 in Jerez

Round three in Jerez starts up this week and the championship looks set to provide another unpredictable twist. Going in, rookie Marc Marquez and current champ Jorge Lorenzo are on equal points in the lead with a win and a third apiece. Marquez is continuing to be humble and Lorenzo has no bragging to share; all the riders know that the championship this year is up for grabs and that the top-heavy distribution of talent will make it difficult for any one rider to walk away with the title. It’s possible it’ll be down to the wire in Valencia at the end of the season – the idea of the top four settling their positions based on their final race results is really attractive.

And Dani Pedrosa and Valentino Rossi have a great history at Jerez as well, and must be at this point feeling the psychological pressure crowding their thoughts despite what they’re saying to the press. Pedrosa was given a raw bit of negative news when Kevin Schwantz spoke his mind to the press, saying essentially that if Pedrosa hasn’t gotten his title by now it’s not going to happen; Dani’s manager Alberto Puig got worked into a lather and released a scathing response. The upshot though is that this season is not a walk in the park for Pedrosa when the end of last season made it look like he’d be invincible. Maybe he’ll hang in there and reassert dominance again at the later tracks, but he’ll have three aliens to deal with this time and not just one. Rossi on the other hand is arguably in the best position as far as pressure; the doubts raised about everything in his career as a result of sitting on a Ducati for two years mean that any hints of promise can be accepted with cheerful humility. We all know it would turn the MotoGP world upside down if he continues to pull off miracles, but Texas was a bucket of cold water on any thoughts he’d come back and triumph. It’s no secret that he and COTA were not made for each other, nor was it a surprise that Marquez ended up being untouchable with his magic affinity for the American roller coaster ride.

Now Jerez, that’s another story altogether. Lorenzo has a great record of victories there once he found his footing including a staggering 19 second win in 2011 (of course, Casey Stoner had been in second place in a rainy race when Rossi passed him at the end of the straight into turn one, then lost the front end, carrying Stoner with him… and as Lorenzo swept from fourth into second and disappeared in the distance, the entire team of marshals rallied around Rossi to get him back on track, virtually ignoring Stoner, quite a scene).

Rossi has many wins there but some odd history as well, landing a 14^th place in 2006 after a turn one incident at the start left him the only bike down and over 30 seconds behind the pack. And Pedrosa has been consistently on the rostrum for seemingly forever. It’s supposed to be a Yamaha track, without long straights for the Hondas to dominate and with more flowing corners where the more stable Yamahas prevail. Both Rossi and Lorenzo will feel relief and renewed purpose back in Spain; Lorenzo will be home and ready to reassert his prowess to reinforce his position in the championship, and there’s no stopping the 20-year old rookie Marquez who surely must have that magical rising tide of confidence in the back of his mind.

Next stop, first practice session in Jerez, Spain this Friday, where weather looks to be in the 20+C range and except for that rain cloud over Friday’s FP1 and FP2 sessions mostly sunny and dry and very, very fast.

 

 

Coming up soon: the world goes to Texas

Just to get it out there right away, let's please all hope that the MotogGP debut of the new US circuit goes smoother than when racing returned in 2005 to Laguna Seca. Shockingly embarrassing; the riders, highly attuned to global affairs, chose to observe a minute of silence to respect the victims of the very recent bombings in London. As they gathered and stood silently at the start line, the PA droned on and on, then horrors introduced whomever it was that then began to sing the national anthem. Off key. Stopping midway because he forgot the words. Yeah. Classy.

The Circuit of the Americas (COTA) will be another race of mystery like Qatar in that the free practice sessions and the qualifying process will continue to be unsettlingly novel for the riders. While it's clear those riders who expect to find themselves in the final Q2 session will have done some soul searching (with their teams) already, the near total unfamiliarity of a new track will add tremendous pressure to FP3, as tire selection and gearing will not be a simple adjustment, and the best lines are proving to be elusive, especially on the unusually sharp hairpins much more suited for Formula 1 driving.

Add the fact that COTA is longer that Losail (5.5km versus 5.4km) and the qualifying sessions will be even more challenging for riders to get more than three or four quality flying laps in; traffic jams that cost both Marc Márquez and Valentino Rossi valuable grid placements. OK, they both made up for it, I'll avoid speculation, but they both got caught out by traffic in Q2 and could not post their best laps.

The first free practice session starts Thursday 18 April and will be a brand new experience for the majority of the grid. If you haven't seen the track there are some highlights especially the end of the grandstand straight into turn one, sweeping uphill and into a tricky left hander at the summit, a four-apex right-hander, and odd kinks throughout the second half of the circuit.

I'm pretty sure most of the riders will feel a great deal of relief when they return to Europe in May for Jerez, where nearly all the teams and riders will have ridden countless times in testing and races, with a much shorter track (4.4km) possibly meaning more complete laps during the 15 minute qualifying dashes.

Qatar: Pre-Race Summary

The first qualifiers for MotoGP 2013 are over and what an odd, exciting new format. Cut to the chase, there were some surprises for sure. Both Valentino Rossi and Marc Marquez never quite got a chance in the end to clear out and run their best qualifier lap; Rossi seems to have learned a lesson about timing this new 15 minute scramble for grid spots as he's stuck heading up the third row in seventh.

Another ironic twist in the opening of the season is that Andrea Dovisioso managed to come to terms with the factory Ducati and timed his qualifying lap well - and he's landed himself fourth on the grid. Once again the unsung and somewhat acharismatic Dovisioso quietly and undramatically turns in the usual A- work, anonymously padding the list of top talent. Doing it on the Ducati however may be the very thing that calls attention to himself as it puts him in terribly stark contrast with Rossi who could never tame the Desmosedici. It was a little frightening watching Dovi in the practice sessions, that bike just bucks its way out of every corner for everyone like it did for Casey Stoner the whole season.

Other notes - Dani Pedrosa looked like he was having a terrible time throughout all of the qualifying practices but in Q2 he found a magic setup change and a clear space and grabbed the last spot on the front row. Cal Crutchlow remains ridiculously fast and only Jorge Lorenzo could manage to carve out a more perfect lap. Crutchlow is going to get some attention this year, he's in great form, we can only hope Yamaha decides to keep investing in Tech3 Monster bikes instead of letting the satellite languish as the season wears on.

And talk about anonymous, Stefan Bradl managed to nick fifth on the grid ahead of both Márquez and Dovi, let's hope Bradl finally gets a podium finish this year.

Rossi finds himself in an odd third row too, as he's sharing it with Álvaro Bautista and Bradley Smith - Bautista with a crushed left hand and a crushed spirit going into the first race; he seems like he's suffering from fate being against him although it's nothing like the fate that's been stacked against the hapless Ben Spies who in the final practice today had his front tire mysteriously dive out from underneath him in a left hander and dumped him right onto his right shoulder, the one that wasn't quite healing fast enough from a fracture, keeping him just out of the running for the big boys qualifier and leaving him beat up and (of course) 13th on the grid.

Smith had an unprecedented lap that snuck him up into the final ten yesterday, and today he again showed some fine rookie form where before he was in danger of disappearing amongst the CRTs. Props also to rookie Andrea Iannone fresh out of Moto2 who rode the satellite (they call it "junior Ducati" which just seems unfair) Desmosedici faster than even veteran Nicky Hayden could manage on his factory prototype. It'd be good to see Crazy Joe bring his antics to the big time, ruffle some feathers.

Lastly before it gets too deep into the mire, watch out for those Espargaro brothers! Aleix champed his way into Q2 after dominating the Q1scrap for a place in the back and although finishing twelfth of 12 he's still beyond the rest of the "second race" and spearheading the threat to the slower prototypes. And if you want a terrific stunning qualifier lap just watch the Moto2 QP...

Sum it up? I think that 2013 is going to be a year of major personality conflicts, both on and off the track. Tons of talent, everyone fast and grouped together up in factory land, and no sign of sprawling lonely races in the future. Lots of egos and a whole host of interesting political dynamics - new punks, unexpected contenders, the return of a brilliant and charismatic champion, a Spanish armada - let's hope they all stay healthy and the season lives up to its very, very considerable promise!

Qatar starts this Thursday

It's almost time for the first Grand Prix of the new season and it all starts on the moon, more or less, what with the Losail International Circuit in the middle of the desert in Dubai and the race run at night since 2008. Losail first hosted MotoGP in 2004 but it was so hot in the day that they built out a massive array of floodlights; last year at night it was still 27C/80F.

There was a certain amount of anticipation last year but in retrospect this year looks much more interesting. Last year was the first year of the CRT, the first new season without Marco Simoncelli, Casey Stoner defending his 2011 title after his dominating first season on the Repsol Honda, and the beginning of what was looking like a gloomy year for Valentino Rossi fans, year two on the challenging Ducati.

The 2012 race in retrospect was a little disappointing; Casey Stoner with all the promise and pole position, late in the race faded with arm pump, and got swallowed by the predictable and tenacious Jorge Lorenzo and by Dani Pedrosa only just beginning a season he'd later dominat. Nicki Hayden looked good in practice sessions and landed a surprising fifth on the grid (surprising in retrospect now given the upcoming difficulties for Ducati throughout the rest of the 2012) and finished sixth, and Rossi seemed miserable from the start, qualifying 12th and wrestling the bike the whole race including at least one off excursion..

This year we have a lot to look forward to.

• We know what CRTs are like now, and we know the Aprilias and Aleix Espargaro are strong but unlikely to ever threaten the podium; that mystery has turned into a good story, and we know that the edge between the slowest prototype riders and the fastest CRTs can easily be breached.
• Now that Stoner's officially gone there's a whole new leaders game. Lorenzo knows he's the defending champion but lost to Pedrosa 6 of the last 8 races last season. Pedrosa is quietly confident and clearly top of the charts fast. But now there are two aliens joining that fray. Rossi the trickster now knows to take nothing for granted, shaving off any hubris he might be burdened by, and he's still got all kinds of potential clearly shown by the pres-season testing, but finally on a bike he can love. And then add Marc Márquez who last year in Qatar rode an aggressive and controversial race to begin a year of triumph in Moto2. Pol Esparagaro will not miss him this season.
• And I should mention the new qualifying rules will be in effect (explained here) which adds a little pre-race color as well. But mostly:
• Lorenzo, Pedrosa, Rossi, and Márquez

First qualifier for MotoGP starts this Thursday.

Rossi is Real : Day 2 Test Results in Jerez

For the final testing sessions in Jerez before the season begins: rain. Mostly, certainly all of the first day, all the riders dressed up and nowhere to go. All the bikes are in their race liveries now, the black test fairings are gone. There was a lot of rain last year making pre-race practice sessions relatively useless. Someone went so far as to suggest riders be required to spend a certain amount of time on the track each day regardless of weather so that the poor sods who paid to watch practice actually get to see something. That hasn't happened.

Yesterday Jorge Lorenzo went out and went fast in the rain but while the test results show a fairly normal distribution of contenders and the CRT divide it wasn't very informative. Today (Sunday) however the track dried out for the end of the session and most riders got out and put in some fast laps. With a very interesting result - for the first time since last year (in the pouring rain at Silverstone), Valentino Rossi ends the day with the fastest lap time in the field.

But here's the difference - last year was wet, and Rossi's time while fastest was 16 seconds slower than the pole position pace that Alvaro Bautista would eventually set the next day in dry conditions. Rossi's best lap today? A 1:39.525, which is 0.007 seconds faster than Jorge Lorenzo's 2012 Jerez pole position qualifier in dry conditions.

There are always caveats of course, and each team's test objectives and decisions makes test results different from qualifiers for sure ("for sure, for sure" like the young riders are now saying like Marco Simoncelli used to say). Some stronger factory riders like Bautista and Stefan Bradl crashed earlier in the morning's mixed conditions but frankly they're part of the pack looking to claw their way onto the podium during the season rather than dominate it. And Marc Márquez was conspicuously absent running in 7th nearly 1.2 seconds off Rossi's time; one can assume that he missed the dry window or was testing an unusual setup or something as he is proving himself to be reliably fast.

Lorenzo and Cal Crutchlow (love seeing him mixing it up with the top brass) were less than 0.05 seconds behind Rossi, and with Dani Pedrosa only just over 0.1 behind as well it's not a crushing result, but that's all the better really, as it means (I'd like to think, after all these tests with the new Yamaha) that Rossi is ready to fight. Qatar will be very interesting! And guaranteed to be dry.

And sorry Livio Loi that you'll miss racing in Moto3 in Qatar because you'll still be 15 and too young to race there, which means Ana Carrasco gets to be the youngest rider cause she just turned 16 two weeks ago.

Márquez is a challenger

I'll admit it right off, I want to see Valentino Rossi win the championship, again. I won't make any excuses for him here and I'm certain he will be a huge source of entertainment this year (this is when one adds "if he stays healthy" which is the racing PR phrase for "doesn't get injured," less to indicate a racer is a crasher, and more like you'd knock on wood).

But Marc Márquez went faster at a brand new track than any of them. He'll be very interesting - very fast and very aggressive. Just ask Tom Luthi about Moto2's first race in Qatar almost a year ago, when Márquez ran him off the track at the end of the straightaway on the last lap to take over first position, or go watch it. That move got repeated and countered like a theme throughout the year that Márquez dominated.

Brash is fine if you're alone in the front but he'll have to deal with some unforgiving lessons in race craft from the likes of Lorenzo and Rossi. And Pedrosa is not going to relinquish his season to a rookie punk, not after winning six of the last eight races last year.

What advice would I give the new contender? Marc: stop touching your face while you're on camera.

Introduction to 2013

First things first, this material is not officially affiliated with the organization MotoGP(tm) or motorgp.com. I love their material, great stuff, and won't copy their material here, go there and get it, it's great. Likewise my opinions and views are strictly my own and are also not the opinions and views of MotoGP.

That said, I'm a fan and have opinions so I'm writing them here. MotoGP 2013 should be a very interesting championship season. Repsol, LCR, and Yamaha Factory have been riding in Texas yesterday and today, top talent sniffing out a new track and watching each other closely. Marc Márquez learns a faster line than anyone else. Faster than Dani Pedrosa or Jorge Lorenzo or Valentino Rossi.

Day two Márquez is one of only two riders to break 2:04.000 in fast conditions, and the other is Pedrosa, more than a tenth behind. Yamaha says they have seen enough and are leaving early.